August 2025

QUESTION: I asked GOK who thinks the stock market will crash. It gave a list of people all expecting a crash. It also noted that Buffet was bearish and J.P. Morgan was calling for a 20% drop. The reasons were “High valuations, particularly in tech and AI, are compared to historical bubbles (e.g., dot-com, railroads).

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The U.S. economy did post a headline-grabbing 3.3% gain in Q2, but that figure is misleading. It’s driven largely by the collapse in imports—not by true domestic growth. Remember the GDP formula: GDP = C + I + G + (X – M). A sharp drop in imports boosts that (X – M) term artificially,

Peace talks are a moot point between Russia and Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine have been at the forefront of Ukraine’s discussions but they are actually a premise to determine how other nations will officially enter the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed an ambitious security guarantee that would require allies to decide within