What’s Thailand’s Endgame If Its Conflict With Cambodia Escalates Into War?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Demilitarization and regime change might be in the cards…

The latest clashes between Cambodia and Thailand over their decades-long border dispute, which were arguably initiated by the Thai military to restore its damaged prestige amidst a recent political scandal as explained here, could “move towards war” according to its acting Prime Minister. Thailand doesn’t recognize the International Court of Justice’s 1962 ruling in favor of Cambodia and rejects third-party mediation in the current conflict so the fighting will likely continue until it achieves some tangible goal.

That scenario would naturally raise the question of Thailand’s endgame. It’s officially only defending itself from what it claims to be Cambodia’s unprovoked aggression and cross-border incursions, but the longer that the conflict goes on for, the more likely it is that mission creep could change its stated goals. After all, the perceived security threat posed by Cambodia is intensifying, so Thailand’s goals could evolve to “demilitarizing” its neighbor and possibly even carrying out regime change to ensure that.

Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who remains influential as the President of the Senate and the father of incumbent Prime Minister Hun Manet, has recently been portrayed as a bogeyman in Thailand. The narrative might thus soon be spun that he and his son’s continued rule over the country poses an enduring threat to Thailand’s security, ergo the possibly proposed solution of replacing them with a puppet regime that’ll demilitarize Cambodia and cede the disputed territories.

Hun Sen was previously demonized by the West, which he strongly implied in 2019 wanted to overthrow him at the possible cost of plunging Cambodia back into civil war, and they also claimed that he cut a secret deal with Beijing to host a Chinese naval base. It therefore wouldn’t be too difficult for Thailand to rally Western governments around a potential regime change campaign in Cambodia. In exchange for their political support, Thailand might promise to have its puppet regime distance Cambodia from China.

To be clear, this speculation about its endgame doesn’t mean that Thailand initiated the latest conflict at the West’s behest, just that the bloc’s US leader might see an opportunity if Thailand’s goals shift to regime change in the event that the conflict escalates into war. Even if this objective becomes obvious to most observers, those multipolar-friendly ones with ties to Thailand might still deny it due to fear of falling afoul of its strict lese-majeste law, which some believe is abused to stifle criticism of the military.

Similarly, due to Thailand’s much larger economy and geostrategic location at the center of the Greater Mekong Subregion, China and Russia might be reluctant to condemn this potential regime change campaign, let alone propose UNSC sanctions. Their global media ecosystems, which include independent influencers who support their worldview and rarely contradict their officials (even usually shying away from constructive critiques of their policies), might take the cue to eschew criticism of Thailand.

Thailand’s military dwarfs Cambodia’s by all metrics so it could easily sweep into Phnom Penh to depose Hun Sen and his son unless something goes wrong or Vietnam intervenes (though it too has problems with them). Public opinion in Thailand also seems to favor regime change in Cambodia, but it’s ultimately the military’s call whether or not to pursue this. They might think that now’s the perfect moment to end Cambodian-emanating threats once and for all, however, so they might very well make a push for this.