Oil Rips As Trump Reduces Russia’s 50-day Deadline For Peace Deal With Ukraine

“I’m disappointed in President Putin,” President Donald Trump said in Scotland alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, just prior to a bilateral meeting with the European leader. He weighed in on stalled Ukraine peace, after last week’s third round of talks between the two warring countries hosted in Istanbul failed to produce tangible results, other than cementing the next round of POW swaps.

Markets and especially oil, are particularly reacting to Trump’s vow that he’ll now reduce a timetable he previously gave Putin to reach a peace deal or face massive “secondary tariffs” on Russia’s trade partners:

“I’m going to reduce that 50 days I gave him to a lesser number,” Trump said.

Recall that Trump had warned earlier this month that buyers of Russian exports would face tariffs “at about 100%” if there’s no ceasefire deal by the imposed deadline.

Oil immediately pushes upward, and keeps climbing, on the new Trump timeline issued to Putin…

However, he did not disclose a specific number of days after issuing the statement. 

The initial 50-days deadline threat was declared on July 14, which would have made the deadline September 2, 2025. So Trump’s new number, though undisclosed, is a deadline now likely falling within August.

There’s really been nothing “new” in the Ukraine war, other than continuing ratcheting cross-border drone attacks by both sides. But President Putin has certainly been sending a tough message, extending the ground invasion into Sumy Oblast (more central Ukraine, beyond the Donbass) – and pummeling major cities, including Kiev, with missile and drone launches.

Trump addressed this from Scotland: “We thought we had that settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever,” he said.

“You have bodies lying all over the street,” Trump continued. “And I say that’s not the way to do it. So we’ll see what happens with that.”

Trump: I’m disappointed in President Putin. I’m going to reduce that 50 days I gave him to a lesser number because I think I already know the answer what’s going to happen pic.twitter.com/MaaFly66kg

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 28, 2025

The reality which is not being addressed is that Russia has the clear upper-hand in the conflict, and looks to win this grinding war of attrition, something probably quietly admitted among Trump officials. If Zelensky still refused to even contemplate territorial concessions – and he hasn’t even offered Crimea – then Putin has little reason to put the brakes on.

Ukraine at Istanbul pressed for a long-term truce, but not based on any compromises, while Moscow has made clear it is only interested in brief multi-day pauses. Russia fears that any substantial truce without permanent settlement would only allow Ukraine to rearm and get more men to the front lines, amid Western efforts to train and equip more of the army.