“Forecast Models Perk Up”: Atlantic Hurricane Season Enters Active Months

Only three named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal) have formed so far during this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. While it’s been quiet since hurricane season began on June 1, nearly 200 years of historical data suggest activity in the Atlantic Basin typically begins to ramp up around this time. 

The latest data from the National Hurricane Center shows an “area of disturbance” in the Atlantic Basin, with a 30% chance of forming over the next seven days. 

WPIX-TV Channel 11 New York’s Senior Meteorologist Mike Masco noted on X:

TROPICAL ATLANTIC STARTING TO WAKE UP?
Two area’s of interest over the next 5-10 days.
1. The “X” in orange may get a name (because we love to name storms in the central Atlantic). Most of this stays east and well out to sea
2. The second area of interest is the yellow area. If… pic.twitter.com/oCiu8juOvJ

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) August 3, 2025

The system comes as Atlantic remains quiet for now, but seasonal data suggests this could soon all change…

“We’re already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up,” WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry told USA Today in a recent interview, adding, “The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24’s long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August.”

Hurricane experts generally agree that September 10 is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, with most of the storms expected from now to mid-September. The season runs through November 30.

Looking ahead, Masco noted that it’s time to start analyzing long-range forecasts for the Lower 48’s upcoming winter season…

IS THAT A NEGATIVE EPO HEADING INTO WINTER???
Getting to that time of the year we start to look at the tea leaves for winter and it’s ALWAYS a good sign to see the emergence of a sustained – EPO which pushes a colder pattern across the eastern USA. The bigger takeaway is a -EPO… pic.twitter.com/pfWSPecehE

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) August 2, 2025

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