US Beef Cow Cycle Low Set To Deepen, Keeping Steak Prices High

US-based research firm CattleFax delivered bad news for consumers at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s annual conference in Nashville this week, warning that high prices for steak and ground beef are here to stay.

CattleFax analyst Kevin Good told the audience that beef supplies will stay very tight. He said the beef cow herd will shrink again this year, pushing slaughter and production to the lowest point of the current cattle cycle.

Bloomberg data shows the total US cattle herd size nears a 75-year low.

In return, tight supplies have sent ground beef prices at the supermarket to record highs – a massive pain point for consumers.

Good said beef cow inventory is expected to decline by about 285,000 head in 2026, with growth of 400k and 500k head in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

The analyst said calf crops – total number of calves born in a given year – should match 2025 levels, signaling another year of tight supplies. He said there won’t be meaningful expansion until 2027, adding that steer and heifer slaughter is forecasted to drop by roughly 600,000 head next year.  

Good noted that beef cow shortages have been offset by slaughterhouses’ increasing reliance on beef-on-dairy cross calves, which now account for about 20% of slaughter animals.

He said restrictions on Mexican cattle imports are expected to further constrain feedyard placements through the first half of 2026.

Since the last peak of the inventory cycle in 2019, the US has had a herd reduction greater than the current beef cow inventory of Texas. A handful of Great Plains states have lost a full 20% of their beef cow herd. pic.twitter.com/kphZDBOuzX

— Garth Gatson (@GarthGatson) January 31, 2026

In recent months, the Trump administration has announced a framework for a trade deal with Argentina to boost beef exports. This would be a temporary fix that would add supply to the US cattle herd, an attempt to lower prices in the short run while the administration works to curb sticky food inflation, which has lingered mostly from the Biden-Harris era.

Ranchers have sounded the alarm on Trump’s move to quadruple beef import quotas of Argentine beef in his attempt to lower grocery store beef prices.

“A deal of this magnitude with Argentina would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry,” Justin Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer and president of the United States Cattlemen’s Association, recently told Reuters.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently told Fox Business, “There is frustration on both sides. And I was with the president yesterday and he is very, very frustrated because (of) everything he’s done to cut taxes, to bring down costs.”

Our biggest takeaway is that food inflation is very sticky, and we’ve told readers for years to create a self-sufficient backyard (start with this).