Iran – the Next Afghanistan & Vietnam

QUESTION: Marty; I was rereading the Middle East report from the 2023 WEC. You had everything pointing to this starting in 2025. Even your Wave 10 on Islam pointed to 2025. Do you still see this ending bad for Israel and a broadening war? It is obvious, the press is told to stay far away from you because they do not like your computer’s forecast. They treat you like they did Kondratieff because Stalin did like his cyclical forecast either.

ANSWER: Unfortunately, yes. Israel’s Iron Dome has failed. Netanyahu is a Neocon. He has over estimated his own position and assumes dragging in the United States ensures total destruction of Iran. The Neocon believe their own BS that the USA has the strongest military and nobody can defeat them. That arrogance is their downfall. They assassinated the Ayatollah following Israel’s policies which are dead wrong. The new Ayatollah is now much more anti-West and pro-nuclear weapons as the only deterent against Israel.

The hardline position of Iran has been made clear by the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah-ul-Uzma Mojtaba Khamenei, following his ascension to power after the US and Israel assassinated his father. In a formal statement delivered via Swiss intermediaries, Iran presented a three-point ultimatum to the United States, demanding:

– Complete withdrawal of all U.S. military forces from the Middle East within 30 days
– Immediate lifting of all sanctions on Iran
– Payment of $500 billion in compensation

The deadline for compliance is April 10, 2026. If unmet, Iran threatens to:

– Close the Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic
– Pursue nuclear weapons development, including possible deployment
– Allow China and Russia to establish military bases on Iranian soil

The arrogance of the Neocons who judge the world through the eyes of their perceived power like some bully in the school yard, completely fail to understand not just what they have done, but the very soul of their adversary. Iran’s new leadership has shown ABSOLUTELY no willingness to soften its stance toward the West, despite significant onslaught of this military attack. I have warned that I would turn this into a proxy war to drain the United States. Reactions have been swift as both China and Russia have publicly backed Iran’s “legitimate security concerns.” Indeed, this is about regime change and the destruction of the Islamic Republic. As always, the Neocons in their mind paint their adversary as ruthless and the people will rise up to overthrow their government. That did not happen in Iraq and the spun the same exact nonsense.

Global markets reacted sharply, with oil prices surging nearly 20% and the S&P 500 has entered the correct phase the computer projected. Trump has been suckered into this quagmire and there is no victory on the horizon. A leaked White House document acknowledges that military strikes have achieved tactical but NOT strategic success. It is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to win this war from the air. The Neocons know that Trump does not like to lose and will use this character trait against him to send in boots on the ground. They do not care how many soldiers die and they will always lie just to win like the Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Iran has issued its own ultimatums:

To international shipping nations: Allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz only if they expel U.S. and Israeli diplomats
To Azerbaijan: “Expel the Zionists” from its territory or face military consequences—a demand Baku has rejected as a violation of international law.

These moves reflect a broader pattern of using diplomatic and economic leverage amid military vulnerability, with Tehran attempting to shift pressure onto global powers while maintaining a defiant posture. The US now stands to risk the entire Middle East and this war will by no means be short and sweet.

Every empire in decline has a moment where it CHOOSES between strategic restraint (accept limits, preserve strength) and imperial overreach (one more war to prove dominance). Rome chose overreach (endless Germanic wars, Persian campaigns) → collapse. Britain chose restraint (post-WWII, liquidated empire peacefully) → survived as smaller power. USSR chose overreach (Afghanistan) → collapsed. The U.S. is at that choice point RIGHT NOW. Iraq and Afghanistan were warnings. Iran is the test. Choose overreach → follow Rome and USSR into history’s graveyard. Choose restraint → painful but survivable transition to multipolar world. The cycles are clear. The choice is ours. The Neocons always choose power, never wisely. Israel is making the same fatal mistake. Its future looks grim post-2028 for it is always the arrogance of power that ensures history buries all such empires in a common grave.

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Iran – the Next Afghanistan & Vietnam

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