The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter.
This sudden deceleration is not a small revision. Data signals that economic momentum was already fading before we entered 2026. Consumer spending was revised down significantly, government spending collapsed due to the 43-day shutdown, and exports also declined. The key measure of domestic demand, final sales to private domestic purchasers, slowed to just 1.9%, down from 2.9% in the prior quarter.
For the full year, the U.S. economy grew about 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, confirming that the economy has already been losing momentum. When you look at the quarterly pattern, the shift becomes clear. Growth surged at 3.8% in Q2 and 4.4% in Q3, only to suddenly collapse to less than 1% as we moved into the final months of the year.
At the same time, inflation has not disappeared. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge shows core inflation running around 3.1% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target. That means the economy is now slowing while inflation remains stubbornly elevated.
The labor market is also beginning to reflect the shift. Job growth has slowed significantly, and some reports indicate monthly job losses are beginning to appear as businesses become more cautious heading into 2026. When GDP weakens and employment softens simultaneously, it typically signals that the business cycle is turning.
But the bigger issue moving forward is war. The United States and its allies are now entering a major geopolitical conflict environment with the ongoing confrontation involving Iran. Rising oil prices tied to that conflict are already beginning to ripple through the global economy. Energy shocks historically feed directly into inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth.
That is why the coming quarters could become increasingly volatile. Economic growth is already weakening while inflation remains above target. If energy prices surge due to war or supply disruptions, inflation will rise again as the economy slows further. That is the textbook setup for stagflation.
From a cyclical perspective, this aligns with what the Economic Confidence Model has been warning about. The period into 2026 was always expected to be a turning point as capital flows shift globally amid rising geopolitical tension. War has historically been one of the biggest disruptors of economic growth, and once energy prices rise sharply, the ripple effects quickly spread through transportation, manufacturing, and food prices. In other words, the slowdown we are seeing now may only be the opening stage.
