Prices Jump, Employment Dumps As US ISM Services Disappoints In March

The last six months or so has seen S&P Global’s and ISM’s Services PMI surveys diverge dramatically (former at three year lows, latter near four year highs).

But, following S&P Global’s Services PMI plunge into contraction in March, ISM’s Services PMI actually ‘agreed’ and fell also (but only modestly) from 56.1 to 54.0 (still in expansion but worse than the expected 54.9)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood it was a very mixed bag with a surge in New Orders (highest since Feb 2023 – good), but a simultaneous spike in Prices Paid (highest since August 2022 – bad), and a sudden plunge in Employment (weakest since Dec 2023 – ugly)…

Thirteen industries reported growth in March, one fewer than in February, and the number reporting contraction remained at three. 

“The PMI survey data show the US economy buckling under the strain of rising prices and intensifying uncertainty, as the war in the Middle East exacerbates existing concerns regarding other policy decisions in recent months, notably with respect to tariffs,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Something for everyone in this report – doves will focus on slowing growth and tumbling employment; hawks on the continued expansion and spiking prices. For now, the market is undecided with rate-change odds flat.