Continuing Jobless Claims Tumble To 2-Year Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 203k to 219k last week (higher than the expected 210k), but still hovering within the low-low range of the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

New Jersey and Oregon saw the largest WoW rise in initial claims while Texas and New York saw the biggest decline…

But, while initial claims rose, continuing jobless claims tumbled to the lowest level since May 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Soft survey data continues to signal a stressed labor market, while hard claims data says – all clear…

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is the ‘no hire, no fire’ economy remains firmly in place with policy-makers holding their breath for March’s inflation data to make a decision.

Expectations for The Fed’s moves in 2026 currently price in 25% odds of a single 25bps rate-cut this year.