Cava’s Lone Bear Analyst Flags Weak Foot Traffic After Stock’s 123% Surge

Northcoast Research analyst Jim Sanderson has emerged as Cava Group’s lone bear on Wall Street, warning in an interview with Bloomberg that the stock’s 123% rally has gone too far.

“The risk profile, given what I see macroeconomically, is unnerving,” Sanderson said in the interview. He noted that the recent surge in the stock has made it very expensive to own.

He continued, “The red flag for me was seeing that traffic at some of the mature locations seemed to be very underwhelming, and in many instances, trending negative for several months relative to the peer group.”

Cava is the Mediterranean version of Chipotle and builds customers’ meals around greens, rice, or pita, then adds proteins, spreads, toppings, and sauces. As with any fast-casual restaurant chain, there is typically a period of consumer hype. And as we all know, on a long enough timeline, nothing lasts forever.

Cava stock is trading at a hefty premium to both the broader market and industry peers. It trades at 159 times forward earnings, compared with Chipotle at about 28 times and the S&P 500 Index at nearly 21 times.

Bloomberg data show Sanderson is the only bear, as Wall Street analysts are largely bullish. There are 17 “Buys” on the stock, along with 13 “Holds.” The average 12-month price target is $88.95.

Sanderson’s interview follows a note earlier this week from Goldman analyst Christine Cho, who said fast food’s “bang for the buck” promotions are working while casual dining’s appeal is sliding.

If Sanderson’s data on underwhelming foot traffic at certain mature locations is accurate, it may suggest that management will eventually need to deploy discounts or promotions to re-energize consumer interest in Mediterranean-style bowls, salads, and pitas. Otherwise, Cava’s Wall Street growth story could seriously lose momentum.