China has unveiled its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) during the country’s annual parliamentary meetings in Beijing, setting out economic, industrial and energy priorities that will shape the world’s largest emitter over the next five years.
While the plan reiterates commitments to expand renewable energy and reduce carbon intensity, analysts say it stops short of signalling the structural changes required to deliver sustained emissions reductions this decade – an issue with major implications for global climate targets.
Carbon-intensity target lower than previous plan
One of the headline climate measures in the new plan is a 17% reduction in carbon intensity—the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output—over the 2026–2030 period.
However, this is lower than the 18% reduction target set under China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025).
Carbon-intensity targets have long been a cornerstone of China’s climate policy, allowing emissions to grow in absolute terms if the economy expands quickly enough. Analysts have expected Beijing to gradually move toward absolute emissions reduction targets as the country approaches its pledge to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Instead, the new plan continues to rely primarily on the intensity metric, leaving uncertainty about how quickly emissions will decline after the peak.
Coal and energy mix remain unresolved
The plan also avoids committing to a rapid phase-down of coal, instead retaining language about “peaking” coal use rather than reducing it outright.
This comes as China has recently approved large volumes of new coal-fired power capacity—the highest level in nearly a decade, raising questions about whether renewable deployment will translate into overall emissions reductions.
China already accounts for around one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, meaning the trajectory set in its five-year plans has significant global implications.
Renewable expansion continues at record scale
Despite these concerns, China’s energy transition continues at an unprecedented pace. The country has installed renewable power capacity faster than any other nation, with wind and solar deployment running at record levels.
Recent analysis suggests emissions may already be stabilising: China’s energy and industrial emissions fell by around 0.3% in 2025, driven largely by rapid growth in solar generation even as overall energy demand rose.
This dynamic—rapid clean-energy expansion alongside continued fossil-fuel investment—has become a defining feature of China’s transition strategy.
Economic and geopolitical drivers
Beyond climate policy, the 15th Five-Year Plan places heavy emphasis on technological self-reliance, industrial upgrading and domestic consumption as China attempts to rebalance its economy and respond to geopolitical tensions.
The plan also coincides with Beijing setting a relatively modest economic growth target of about 4.5–5%, reflecting structural economic challenges such as an ageing population, weak domestic demand and property-sector instability.
In this context, maintaining coal capacity is widely seen as a strategy to ensure energy security and support industrial growth, even as renewables expand.
Climate campaigners call for deeper emissions cuts
Environmental organisations say the new plan does not yet align with the emissions reductions needed to meet global climate goals.
Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org, said:
“China has built more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined, but this plan still does not clearly translate that progress into a fast enough structural and deep decline in emissions. This is insufficient progress. Expanding wind and solar at record speed is a huge achievement, but it must now be matched with a decisive phase-down of coal and a clear pathway to absolute emissions reductions. People want clean air, stable energy prices and climate security. China’s next development phase must deliver more than clean energy growth, it must end fossil fuel expansion.”
China’s policy decisions carry disproportionate weight in global climate efforts. With emissions estimated at around 15.8 Gt CO₂-equivalent in 2024 (about 32% of the global total), the country’s energy strategy will heavily influence whether the world can limit warming in line with the Paris Agreement.
The 15th Five-Year Plan therefore highlights a central tension in China’s climate policy: a world-leading renewable build-out occurring alongside continued fossil-fuel expansion, leaving uncertainty about whether emissions will begin a sustained decline before the 2030 peak target.
