Despite Tumbling Rates, US Home Price Acceleration Slowed In January

US home price acceleration slowed significantly in January (according to the always lagged and smoothed Case-Shiller indices).

After rising 0.50% MoM in December, the price of homes in America’s to 20 cities rose just 0.16% MoM in January (the lowest MoM rise since August and well below the 0.35% MoM expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

This left the 20-city composite index up just 1.18% YoY – the lowest since July 2023.

“Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially,” according to Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. .

“Splitting the year into two halves sharpens the picture,” Godec continued.

“The National Index rose 2.2% over the first six months of the period, then fell 1.3% over the most recent six – a swing that explains why annual gains have compressed to under 1% despite prices remaining historically elevated.

“Geographic leadership remains narrow,” Godec concluded. 

New York leads with a 4.9% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 4.6% and Cleveland at 3.6%, while Tampa fell 2.5%…

However, declining mortgage rates since suggest a rebound in aggregate prices could be about to explode…

…before the recent rise in rates kicks in (remember case-shiller data is very lagged).

Is this what President Trump wants to see? Flat prices and lower mortgage rates means more affordability…