Futures Rise, Oil Drops On Report Of Ceasefire Push

US stock futures rose, but were off session highs (and lows) and crude oil dipped as the bipolar market focused its attention on a report of a push to secure a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran, following a reversal in those exact same hopes late last week. As of 8:00am ET S&P 500 futures added 0.1% in light trading after the Easter holiday, reversing an earlier loss of as much as 0.8%, but also off session highs. Nasdaq futures tose 0.4% with all Mag 7 stocks higher mostly higher. Several markets in Europe and Asia were still closed. WTI crude was traded near $110 a barrel, just off session lows, after it opened just shy of a post-wary high of $115. The dollar weakened. Ten-year Treasury yields held near 4.34%. Focus this week (outside of Iran): FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PCE Thursday, and CPI Friday. LEVI reports Tuesday night and DAL Weds morning. On the calendar for today: US ISM Services @ 10am (est 54.9, last 56.1), Trump to speak at news conference @ 1pm. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla +1.4%, Meta +1.2%, Alphabet +0.9%, Microsoft +0.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Nvidia +0.5%, Apple +0.1%)

Boot Barn (BOOT) gains 2.2% as Jefferies raised its recommendation on the apparel company to buy from hold as recent selloff presents an attractive re-entry point on the stock.
Carvana (CVNA) falls 1.7% as BofA Global Research downgrades the online used-car retailer to neutral from buy citing recent macro and industry developments.
Rocket Cos. (RKT) is up 2.3% after Barclays raised the recommendation to overweight from equal-weight following a recent share decline.
Twilio (TWLO) gains 3.1% as Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold citing greater conviction in the role the firm will play in the voice AI tech stack.
Tyson Foods (TSN) gains 1.8% as as Piper Sandler upgrades to overweight from neutral citing potential near-term catalysts in beef and chicken.

In corporate news, Nvidia partner Hon Hai reported a 30% rise in quarterly sales, roughly inline with consensus estimates, a sign of sustained AI demand. OpenAI’s COO is shifting into a new role to lead special projects and report directly to CEO Sam Altman. Novo Nordisk CEO sees huge upside to weight-loss market and drugmakers should focus on widening access, according to an interview with the FT. Paramount is in talks to secure signed equity commitments of close to $24 billion from three sovereign-wealth funds to back its takeover of Warner Bros, according to the WSJ. 

Weekend news centered on Trump’s aggressive threat/deadline to Iran tomorrow which doesn’t indicate a quick path to de-escalation, although the president said he would destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz by 8pm tomorrow.  That was followed by an Axios report that the US/Iran/regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire, however a spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said “no rational person” would agree to the proposal. Additionally, there are reports that 15 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz the past 24 hours with Iran’s permission which is helping sentiment.

Otherwise, Israel said it killed IRGC’s intelligence chief and Trump will hold a press-conference today at 1pm EST.  

“This mix of coercion and negotiation leaves the market without a stable reference,” said Sergio Avila, senior market analyst at IG Group in Madrid. “The rebound makes tactical sense, but it doesn’t yet signal a solid improvement in the macroeconomic and financial outlook.”

Traders have been seizing on any headlines that may affect sentiment as the Iran war stokes inflation concern. Also helping bolster market sentiment were signs that a few ships have crossed the Strait of Hormuz.  Last week, a French container ship and a Japanese-owned tanker were confirmed have made the transits. As well, two tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar appear to be attempting to exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, with the move being closely monitored as a successful transit would mark the first exports to buyers outside of the region since the war started.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson thinks US stocks are bottoming out, recommends adding exposure to cyclical and quality growth where earnings remain strong, valuation compressed and sentiment is negative. 

On Friday, the BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls added 178K jobs in March, and substantially higher than consensus of 65k. The hot print reduces urgency for Fed cuts and Anna Wong expects payrolls to pick up steam through June, reflecting increased leisure and hospitality hiring as the US hosts the soccer World Cup, and a cyclical rebound in the freight sector.

In private credit, investors see a crisis as a contained, but credible, tail risk rather than an imminent shock, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey. CLOs and loan indexes are flagging software credit losses, raising the risk of ugly surprises in first-quarter finance sector earnings starting next week. 

In politics, Trump asked Congress to enact a $2.2 trillion budget for discretionary programs, seeking a massive increase in defense spending, while also renewing his push for steep cuts to domestic agencies. 

Meanwhile Trump, in renewing his threats to target Iran’s civilian infrastructure, told Axios that he would be “blowing up everything over there” if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Trump said he plans a news conference at 1 p.m. local time on Monday and posted about a Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline, without offering details.

Looking ahead to economic data this week, traders likely focus on CPI for March release on Friday, with a 1% increase expected – the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon.

European markets closed for Easter Monday holiday. Asia Trading: Stocks in Asia gained as investors pinned their hopes on de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after a report said Iranian mediators made a last-minute push for a 45-day ceasefire. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8%, with Korean chip stocks Samsung and SK Hynix leading the advance. Japan’s TOPIX rose 0.9%, setting it on course for the highest close in more than two weeks. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets closed

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.2% as the euro and the pound hit fresh session highs. Risk-sensitive currencies strengthened, and the Swedish krona led G-10 gains, following an Axios report saying that US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war. Ranges were tight on aggregate.  We’re “seeing risk FX rally” on the headlines, said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore. Still, “markets may be running ahead of diplomacy again,” she said.

In rates, treasuries hold small losses as US trading resumes after Friday’s selloff, with most European markets still on holiday. US yields were within 2bp of their closing levels on Friday, when strong March jobs data during abbreviated session caused further erosion in the market-implied chances of a Fed rate cut this year or next year. 

In commodities, WTI crude price isn’t dramatically changed from Friday’s close, but oil remains in focus. OPEC+ warned on Sunday that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month. Developments in the US war on Iran remain in focus after US President Trump pushed to April 7 the deadline he’d set for April 6 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its power plants. Oil benchmarks declined, however, after several tankers have traversed the strait since Friday. Gold was roughly unchanged from Thursday close, trading in the upper $4600s.

Focus this week (outside of Iran): FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PCE Thursday, and CPI Friday. LEVI reports Tuesday night and DAL Weds morning. On the calendar for today: US ISM Services @ 10am (est 54.9, last 56.1), Trump to speak at news conference @ 1pm. 

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini +0.1%,
Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%,
Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.36%
VIX +0.6 points at 24.47
Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1213.26
euro +0.3% at $1.1557
WTI crude -1.8% at $109.51/barrel

Top Overnight News

With a U.S. deadline approaching, the United States and Iran received the framework of a plan to end their five week-old conflict, though Tehran rejected any immediate move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by ‌the end of Tuesday that would allow traffic to start moving again through the vital route for global energy supplies. RTRS
Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday as Tehran said “no rational person” would agree to end hostilities without guarantees. The US, Iran and regional mediators are discussing terms for a possible 45-day ceasefire. Trump will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. ET, following the weekend rescue of a second US airman. BBG
Iran has cleared the way for Iraqi ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, declaring it a “brotherly country” that is exempt from restrictions that have left Western vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf since the U.S. and Israel launched their war more than a month ago. The restrictions are imposed only on “enemy countries.” WSJ
White House said due to popular demand from the press, President Trump’s news conference on Monday will now take place in the White House briefing room at 13:00EDT. News conference is to address the rescue of US airman in Iran.
Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium of $19.50 as the war upends the market. BBG
India said it’s buying crude from Iran, a rare public recognition of purchases it had largely abandoned as a result of US sanctions. BBG
OPEC+ warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact even after the war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month. BBG
Chinese bonds may be reaching an historic turning point, with yields climbing from record low levels as deflationary pressures ease and expectations for monetary loosening recede. BBG
Israel on Monday said it killed the IRGC’s intelligence chief, and vowed to “hunt down” Tehran’s leaders “one by one.” AP
Trump’s regulators are rewriting some of the policies that can trigger debanking, a move that risks making it harder for firms to expel problematic customers or those suspected of criminal activity. BBG

Weekend Updates

US President Trump posted on Saturday that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them, citing the previous ten-day deadline for Iran to make a deal or open up the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”. Furthermore, he reiterated his threat for Iran to open the Strait or they will be living in hell, and posted “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”
US President Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran’s power plants if the country’s leaders don’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening, while he responded, “I will let you know pretty soon” when asked about when he thinks the war will end, according to a WSJ interview.
US President Trump told Fox News that he believes he can get a deal with Iran by Monday and said Iran is negotiating now, but also stated that he ideally will take Iranian oil if Iran is unwilling to make an agreement.
US President Trump claimed in an interview with Axios that the US is “in deep negotiations” with Iran and that a deal can be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday. However, he added that if they don’t make a deal, he is blowing up everything over there.
US President Trump said in a brief phone interview with The Hill that he is not ruling out ground troops in Iran if Tehran does not make a deal and said “If they were smart, they would make a deal”.
US rescued the second crew member from a downed F-15 in Iran. In relevant news, US President Trump told NBC News on Friday that the downing of the US jet won’t affect Iran talks.
US has deployed most of its JASSM-ER long-range stealth cruise missiles for the Iran war.
US is doubling to USD 40bln its commitment to provide reinsurance guarantees to ships that travel through the Strait of Hormuz.
US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four US, Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks, cited by Axios.
Israeli defence official said they are making preparations for strikes on Iran’s energy facilities and awaiting the go-ahead from the US, while the strikes would likely come in the week ahead.
Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the whole region is going to burn because US President Trump insists on following Israeli PM Netanyahu’s commands.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and will target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related to it.
IRGC warned on Friday that if US President Trump’s threats to target Iran’s infrastructure are carried out, the armed forces of Iran will target all Israeli and American assets and those of the host countries with even greater and more crushing force, according to IRNA.
IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz will never return to normal for the US and Israel, while it added the IRGC Navy is preparing operations for a new order in the Persian Gulf. It was also reported that the IRGC said they hit an Israeli ship in the channel of the UAE’s Jebel Ali port.
Iran was reported on Friday to have rejected a US proposal for a 48-hour ceasefire, while the proposal was made on Wednesday through another country.
Iran and Oman are in active talks to manage and potentially reopen maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while officials met on Saturday to discuss practical options, according to the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited by ABC News.
Iran’s military said Iraqi ships can travel through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iraq exempt from shipping restrictions. It was also reported that Iran approved the passage of ships carrying essential goods to Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, while a Petronas-chartered tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passed through Hormuz. Furthermore, 15 ships had passed through Hormuz in 24 hours with permission from Iran, according to Fars News Agency on Sunday evening.
IAEA Chief Grossi said Iran possesses a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium, nearing military grade, with the majority located at Isfahan and some at Natanz, while he added it is sufficient for the production of a few warheads.
Israeli army said it conducted a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime in Tehran, while Iran announced explosions in Tehran and Qom. Iranian media also reported an explosion in Shiraz early Monday morning and dozens of successive explosions in the city of Karaj. Furthermore, strikes caused a temporary gas outage in the Sharif neighbourhood and hit a gas station near Sharif University in Tehran.
Iran fired multiple waves of missiles towards Israel, while air raid sirens sounded in 186 locations in Tel Aviv, the coastal plain, and southern Negev after detecting missiles allegedly originating from Iran, according to reports from Sky News Arabia.
Missile and drone warning sirens were active in the UAE, with defence systems activated and explosions were reported at US-linked facilities in Abu Dhabi.
Kuwait’s government announced that two power and water desalination plants were struck by Iranian drones, resulting in significant damage and two power generation units out of service. It was also reported that Kuwait Petroleum Corp’s headquarters caught on fire following an unmanned drone strike.
Bahrain urged the UN to pass a resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China is ready to cooperate with Russia to ease Middle East tensions.
India’s Foreign Minister had a teleconference on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East with Qatar’s PM and Foreign Minister.

Iran War

Pakistan Army Chief held separate called with US VP Vance, Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Araghchi, according to a source. Proposal for final agreement includes Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and release of frozen assets. If agreed, plan will lead to immediate ceasefire, reopening of Strait of Hormuz, with a final agreement in 15-20 days. Plan to end hostilities in Middle East needs to be agreed on Monday.
Senior Iran official confirmed receipt of Pakistan’s proposal; is being reviewed; said Tehran will not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the 15-point plan proposed by the US is extremely ambitious, unreasonable and illogical; Iran has wrote down a set of demands based on its own interests and considerations.
Israel Defence Minister Katz said it will continue to hit Iran infrastructure as long as Iran keeps firing.
Iranian armed forces spokesperson confirms Iran struck US new camp on Kuwait’s Bubyan Island, according to a statement.
Two sources tell the Jerusalem Post the mediators Egypt and Pakistan are trying a last-minute ceasefire deal where Hormuz will be open and talks will start on a full deal between US and Iran.
Iran and US presented with draft proposal that includes 45-day ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz opening, two officials tell AP.
Iranian Foreign Minister said if the US goes ahead with threats to attack Iran’s infrastructure, then it will undoubtedly be met with a decisive and all-round response from the armed forces of Iran, SNN reported.
Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs said “[US] should stop these threats – the effects of which will not be limited to Iran.”, Tasnim reported. Based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, Iran will give a decisive, immediate and regretful response to any imminent aggression or threat.
Spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Iran’s response to the mediators has been compiled and we will inform you whenever necessary, IRNA reports
The Iranian regime believes it can continue the fighting and end the war on better terms, according to an Arab diplomat involved in the contacts between Iran and the US, cited by Kann News.
Sirens sound in Be’er Sheva and large parts of southern Israel following an Iranian missile launch.
Pakistan and Egypt are facilitating communications between Iran and the US, with Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Iran negotiations, according to a source cited by CNN.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were higher despite the recent threats by US President Trump, as the region also digested last Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs data, while there was some encouragement after more ships sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran exempted Iraq from shipping restrictions. Furthermore, Trump also said he believes they can get a deal before his deadline, and Axios reported that mediators are making a last-ditch effort for a potential 45-day ceasefire. However, conditions remain extremely thin owing to mass holiday closures on Monday for Easter and the Ching Ming Festival. Nikkei 225 shrugged off initial geopolitical headwinds and tested the 54,000 level, where it met some resistance, while news that two Japan-linked vessels passed through Hormuz provided encouragement. KOSPI was led higher by early tech strength with Samsung Electronics rallying ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary Q1 results, with the Co. expected to post a six-fold increase in operating profit to a record KRW 40.5tln due to an AI-driven surge in memory chip demand.a

Top Asian News

Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi reiterates that a weak yen has both positive and negative impact.

European bourses are closed for the Easter Holiday.

Top European News

Bank of Italy updates economic outlook released on 3rd April: CPI forecasts raised across the board. Growth: Cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.6%), cuts 2027 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (prev. 0.2%) and maintains 2028 GDP growth forecast at 0.8%. Inflation: Raises 2026 CPI to 2.6% (prev. 1.4%), raises 2027 CPI to 1.8% (prev. 1.6%) and raises 2028 CPI to 1.9% (prev. 1.6%).
Europe and China are launching a joint space mission to study how Earth’s magnetic field protects against harmful solar radiation.
EU warns capitals against turning energy crunch into fiscal crisis and urges governments to avoid excessive support to offset surging energy prices, according to FT.

FX

DXY traded either side of Friday’s narrow range and has fallen back below the 100.00 handle as hopes of a ceasefire gain traction. First reporting came from Axios over the weekend, in which sources said the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
More recently, Reuters cited the Pakistan Army Chief stating that an immediate ceasefire, with the reopening of Hormuz, is on the table if a final agreement is reached on Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. However, an end to hostilities needs to be agreed on by Monday.
EUR and GBP both strengthened against the greenback, with EUR/USD trading at the top end of a 1.1505-1.1569 range while GBP/USD extends above 1.3250.
JPY is underperforming, only posting modest gains against the USD. Multiple BoJ branch managers stated the uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The Osaka official stated that earlier rate hikes have yet to have a substantial impact on overall business activity. On wage talks, the official highlighted that no firms have indicated that the conflict has hindered wage increases.

Central Banks

ECB’s Stournaras says an appropriate monetary policy response in Eurozone will depend on the size and nature of the energy shock.
BoE is reportedly divided on how to address energy-induced inflation and divisions are likely to reopen later this month over how aggressive it needs to be in tackling the impact of the Iran war, according to FT.
Citigroup pushes back its Fed rate cut timeline in which it now sees Fed cutting rates in September, October, and December vs prev. forecast for cuts in June, July, and September.
BoJ Nagoya branch manager said some firms in the region are worried about FX volatility, uncertainty over Middle East conflict could hurt the economy.
BoJ Osaka officials report that earlier rate hikes have yet to have a substantial impact on corporate financing or overall business activity. Smaller firms’ wage talks may be affected by the Middle East conflict but no firms have indicated the conflict has hindered wage increases.
BoJ quarterly regional economic report leaves assessment of all 9 regions unchanged.

Fixed Income

USTs trades in a tight 110.20-110.26 range, in a session in which its European peers are closed for Easter Monday. Slight upticks were seen amid the downside in crude prices, which also resulted in DXY weakness, but it remains contained. On the data front, ISM Services PMI is expected later, with the headline figure expected at 55 from 56.1 prior. US President Trump is also expected to hold a press conference at 18:00 BST/13:00 EDT.

Commodities

Crude futures gapped higher on the open and surged higher, with WTI May’26 and Brent Jun’26 topping at USD 115.48/bbl and USD 111.89/bbl, respectively. The upside came following a Truth post by President Trump threatening Iran that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Trump also posted that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!”. Despite the threats, he also told Fox News that he can get a deal with Iran by Monday and that Iran is negotiating now. The upside was then completely pared back throughout the APAC session following an Axios report citing sources with knowledge of the talks, that the US, Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war.
On the ceasefire front, hopes have risen following a Reuters report highlighting comments by the Pakistan Army Chief stating that an immediate ceasefire, with the reopening of Hormuz, is on the table if a final agreement is reached on Iran foregoing nuclear weapons, receiving relief from sanctions and releasing frozen assets. However, an end to hostilities needs to be agreed on by Monday. Furthermore, a senior Iranian official confirmed the receipt of Pakistan’s proposal and that it is being reviewed. Crude futures now trade with losses, with Brent Jun’26 briefly slipping below USD 108/bbl.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ eight members agreed to raise quotas by 206k bpd for May, although the increase is seen to be symbolic and will predominantly exist on paper as key members are unable to boost output due to the Iran war. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia sets May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium.
Spot gold continues to find support at the 100-SMA as USD weakness lifts the precious metal above USD 4,700/oz and holds above USD 4,600/oz, which has acted as a significant inflection point in recent trading sessions.
Copper futures return from the 3-day closure with mild gains, with CME Copper oscillating in a USD 5.59-5.69/t range, as the risk tone improves on hopes of a Middle East ceasefire. LME is still out of action until Tuesday.
Russian oil product exports from Black Sea port of Tuapse planned at 794k tons in April (vs 755k in March), according to traders.
Saudi Arabia set May Arab Light crude oil OSP to Asia at USD 19.50/bbl premium vs Oman/Dubai average (vs Bloomberg exp. of ~USD 40/bbl); a record premium, Bloomberg reported.
Two tankers carrying LNG from Qatar appear to be heading towards the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing tracking data.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said aware two Japan-linked vessels passed through Hormuz.

US Event Calendar

10:00 am: United States Mar ISM Services Index, est. 54.9, prior 56.1