Oil Up, Stocks Down As War Rhetoric Rises, Deadlines Loom

After a long weekend of kinetic and verbal escalation (and a strong payrolls print), and with President Trump reminded Iran that his deadline for a deal looms, it is no surprise that oil prices are higher in early trading…

WTI topped $115…

Near post-war highs…

And despite the recent hope-filled decoupling of oil and stocks…

…S&P futures also weak, down around 0.7% in the early trading…

Treasury futures and gold are lower with USD/JPY near 159.70.

While the Iran conflict has established an ongoing state of caution in the market, several significant data points yet lie ahead: PCE on April 9, CPI on April 10, and FOMC on April 29.

As SpotGamma notes, the SPX Term Structure has returned to contango — which means options are pricing in higher volatility in the weeks ahead than in the near term.

Comparing that curve with Forward IV shows a meaningful spread around both the CPI and FOMC dates, suggesting current positioning may not fully reflect the event risk those catalysts could bring. Between negative gamma, the IV-RV flip, and a still-steepened vol curve, the data suggests traders should remain alert.