Solar Stocks Surge As Energy Shock Revives Renewables Trade

Goldman analyst Adam Wijaya asked clients whether this year’s surge in SolarEdge, Enphase Energy, and other solar stocks is reviving a familiar trade: higher crude oil and natural gas prices in Europe and globally, strengthening the case for renewables as the energy shock sparks a return to coal switching.

“Are we back to running the 2022 playbook?” Wijaya asked in a note published Monday.

Wijaya said, “Certainly seems that way based on recent px action in residential solar.” 

“SEDG is +79% YTD vs ENPH +18% and RUN -32%… oil + gas prices moving higher in Europe/globally + coal switching coming into the equation begs the question ‘do we start to see more renewables adoption in the EU given demand needs?'”.

SolarEdge shares are up 64% year to date, broadly tracking Brent crude and the European natural gas benchmark. The logic behind the trade is that higher fossil fuel prices improve the economics of alternative energy.

“As we start getting closer to midterm elections – some specialists asking questions around the ‘blue playbook’… ie which single stocks could have leverage to a policy shift in Energy focused on solar/wind/renewables.”

Potentially stronger demand for renewables comes as the Hormuz crisis forces countries to rethink energy security. With some power grid operators likely to switch to coal to keep the lights on, the shock is also reviving the conversation around adding more solar and wind to diversify grid mix.