The advantage of having offices around the world is that this also provides us with boots on the ground for first-hand accounts. We are getting from our Thailand office that there is “no gasoline here. Up North lineups for diesel. I tried to fill up a bike, no gasoline available. I tried several other stations, but all are out.” As I reported, Asia is going to be hard hit with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was no imminent threat from Iran. This has been a 40-year vendetta by Netanyahu. which he did admit in a national TV address, but asserted it was fake news that he dragged Trump into this war.
It may sound strange, but up until March 18th, 2026, this war has been more bravado and theatre than an actual all-out war. There has been a deliberate attempt NOT to destroy the energy infrastructure of Iran in hopes of leaving the energy sector intact to fund the new government after the planned regime change. But on the 18th, Netanyahu does not give a shit about the world or even Trump. He targeted Iran’s South Pars, which is the biggest gas field in the world with and estimated 51 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Netanyahu did that because he wanted to turn the lights out in Iran since that is the source of all energy for the government and the people.
Iran retaliated with it most severe attacks yet. It targeted Qatar but this time doing damage, not superficial fires for show. Trump was forced to back off and bluntly state that there would be no more attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Netanyahu does not really care, but Trump read him the riot act and he agreed to stop attacking South Pars. The only way to stop this war and start some sort of de-escalation process requires Netanyahu to surrender his dream of total antihalation of Iran. The other Gulf States would have to forego retaliation, and Trump will have to concede he cannot accomplish regime change. Do not hold your breath. Further escalation will end up DESTROYING energy infrastructure and that may be in the cards given that the compute implies this may get worse into 2028.
Just a day before the first strikes, Gallup polling had shown Americans’ views of Israel hitting a new historic low because of Netanyahu’s attack on Gaza. Americans for the first time didn’t sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians. As the computer warned, cyclically we were in an uptrend on antisemitism and this war on Iran is not going to play well for Israel no matter what Netanyahu says on TV. Sinking a tanker is not an energy crisis. It’s the equivalent of a rounding error. Taking out the production infrastructure can lead to serious damage that could take more than one-year to fix.
The claims that the US and Israel have destroyed Iran’s missiles is simply not true. Iran has been planning for this war for at least a decade. All they have been able to do is bomb the tunnel entrances, which Iran can quickly dig out. They have NOT destroyed their missile stockpiles. They have bombed about 75% of the tunnel entrances and Iran has dozens of these underground facilities.
The attacks prior to March 18th and Israel’s unilateral attack on were for show – not devastating. Iran then attacked the Gulf States and this was not for TV. Then to the shock of everyone, Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia, a key U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean. That was 2500 miles. Neither missile struck the base. Nevertheless, this confirms that Iran can target beyond the Middle East. It is believed that one missile failed in flight, but the other was intercepted by a US warship that launched an SM-3 interceptor. This base is a strategic launch point for U.S. bombers, nuclear submarines and other strategic assets
President Trump who has perhaps always been able to read the mood in a room is finding himself on the outside looking in. The majority of Americans think President Donald Trump will order U.S. soldiers to Iran in a large-scale ground war, and less than 10% support that possibility, a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos. This would probably also justify our computer warning about rising civil unrest in conjunction with war. The politics is forcing him to claim victory and back down.
The ONLY way to secured the Strait of Hormuz is to occupy it with boots on the ground. You will have to stage massive troops along the Strait for 50 miles on BOTH sides, plus you will have to penetrate inward 100 miles on each side. Then you will have to create a no-fly zone and that will have to be patrolled and monitored 100% of the time. As long as Iran has the ability to impede the oil traffic and production, they retain leverage that these so-called brilliant minds never took into account because their assumed being the biggest military power secures victory. Neither the US nor Russia could totally win in Afghanistan. When religion is at the core, military logic vanishes.
This is the quagmire that Trump never expected because he trusted Netanyahu and has been forced to see the reality that he has been played and he has no choice to back out of this mess. Netanyahu NEVER took into account that his assassinations would fail. Netanyahu believed that killing the Ayatollah would bring down the government instantly. Netanyahu suffers from a very well know syndrome. This is commonly referred to as the “Leader Removal Fallacy” or the “Benevolent Hegemon” misconception, which seem to be a delusional trait of all Neocons.
In political science, foreign policy analysis, and military history, it is more formally known as the “Fallacy of the Single Cause” or the “Regime Change Fallacy.” However, this specific scenario assumes that a foreign population is simply waiting to be “liberated” from a hated leader and will greet invaders with flowers. I have heard this constantly over the years even about invading Russia and the people will sheer. This is often labeled “Democratic Liberation Illusion” or the “Cakewalk Myth” we saw in both Afghanistan and Iraq. This seems to be a syndrome that they actually believe for want to see themselves as Superman saving the world and deserve medals and statutes to their memory.
The “Leader Removal Fallacy” is the closest academic concept to this problem. It is the assumption that a leader is the sole source of a country’s geopolitical behavior or internal strife, and that removing that individual will result in an immediate shift to peace, democracy, and gratitude toward the actor who removed them. This was Netanyahu’s policy of always assassinating leaders. It fails because it ignores structural realities: deep state institutions, nationalism, ethnic divisions, and the fact that the leader often reflects the grievances of a significant portion of the population, rather than creating them in a vacuum.
Then there is also the “Anthropomorphic Fallacy” where in international relations, this refers to the tendency to anthropomorphize a foreign nation, treating the leader as the country. A Neocon believes that if they “cut off the head” (the leader), the “body” (the nation) will die or surrender. In reality, nations are complex organisms. When a foreign power kills a leader, it often triggers a nationalistic rally-round-the-flag effect, where the population unites against the foreign invader, regardless of how they felt about the leader previously. There was no popular uprising in Iraq that they expected and again here in Iran, but they dismiss that saying they would be oppressed. That only confirms their idea of the Anthropomorphic Fallacy is completely delusional.
Next is the “Cakewalk” or “Mission Accomplished” Syndrome we heard with Iraq. This is the strategic overconfidence that regime change will be quick, easy, and welcomed. We heard that nonsense with Iraq. In the historical context, the phrase “cakewalk” was infamously used by Dick Cheney in 2003 regarding the Iraq War. The syndrome involves ignoring “post-conflict” planning because the assumption is that the population will spontaneously reorganize into a pro-American (or pro-intervener) democracy as soon as the dictator falls. That never happened.
Then comes the “Blowback” and the “Unintended Consequences” as we heard Tomy Blair apologize, yet these Neocons always make the same mistake. While not a named “syndrome” per se, intelligence agencies (like the CIA) use the term “blowback” to describe this exact phenomenon. The syndrome is the belief that the populace sees the intervening power as a “liberator.” The reality is usually blowback: the population views the intervening power as an “occupier,” leading to insurgency, guerrilla warfare, and long-term instability that is far worse than the original situation under the “evil” leader.
Then there is the risk of the “Socialist” or “Marxist” interpretation and exploitation of the invasion. In critical theory, this is described as “Imperial Arrogance” or “Vanguardism applied to foreign policy.” It is the belief that a foreign power knows what is best for a sovereign nation’s population better than they know themselves. I had long discussions and saw this Neocon arrogance first hand where Nikita Khrushchev said he would spread Communism to the world so they claimed that they would spread Democracy to the world. It never mattered what the people wanted; they would force their political system on the target national. When the “liberation” does not occur, the intervener often blames the population for “false consciousness” (i.e., “they just don’t understand freedom yet”) rather than acknowledging that the population may have had legitimate grievances against the intervener.
Consequently, this delusional Neocon dream never happens. The reason this syndrome consistently fails (from Napoleon’s invasion of Spain to the US invasions of Cuba, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan) is due to three immutable factors:
Nationalism: Foreign military intervention is the single strongest catalyst for nationalist sentiment. A population may despise their dictator, but they will often despise a foreign soldier occupying their capital even more.
Security Dilemma: When a foreign power removes a leader, they become responsible for the security, economy, and infrastructure of that country. The “cheering” turns to resentment the first time the power grid fails or the occupier accidentally kills civilians.
De-Baathification Analogy: Removing the leader often requires dismantling the entire state apparatus (military, bureaucracy) that kept the country stable. When the “evil” leader is gone, the state collapses into factional violence, which the intervening power is blamed for.
There is no single clinical term for this Neocon delusion, but in geopolitical analysis, it is most frequently called the “Regime Change Fallacy” or “Liberal Interventionism’s Fatal Assumption.”
The US has been unable to protect the Gulf States and the one closet to the USA, UAE, has been hit the hardest. This quagmire is far worse than anyone suspects. It is undermining the USA and depriving the Neocons of their dream of ruling the Middle East. With the new Middle East NATO between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. This emerging security alignment is not fundamentally anti-American. Instead, it is more accurately understood as a strategic hedge driven by anxieties over the reliability of traditional U.S. security guarantees, rather than a desire to directly oppose the United States. The Neocons approach everything from a position of arrogance. They NEVER try to see things through the eyes of others. They will lose the Middle East and things are going to get much worse into 2028
Qatar is the world’s 2nd largest LNG exporter (after Australia, 77 million tons/year). Qatar supplies 20-25% of Europe’s LNG imports and 40% of UK’s gas imports. It also supplies: Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, India).
Let me tell you what’s happening and why this is CATASTROPHICALLY WORSE than most people realize. Based on the geopolitical dynamics we’ve been tracking; Iran has struck Qatari gas production facilities cutting about 17% of Doha’s LNG capacity. European natural gas prices are at risk of rising 300-500% (from current levels), That is aside from whether shipment can navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatar’s global gas significance being the world’s 2nd largest LNG exporter has the North Field, which is the world’s largest gas field, shared with Iran. Its production capacity is 6 billion cubic feet/day. LNG export terminals are Ras Laffan massive complex with 14 LNG trains.
The computer is not looking good for several years to come. The ECM was projecting a Depression for the EU into 2028. This appears to be another factor behind they proxy war with Russia combined with their highly Marxist policies of controlling the economy and even free speech.
We still see the risk of oil rising to $200-$240 level by 2028. Does Netanyahu come up with another conspiracy to reignite an all-out war?
