Trump Warns Of Action If Iran Fails To Uphold ‘Real’ Ceasefire, But Optimism Persists As Bombing Largely Subsides

Summary: 

WH confirms Vice President Vance will lead Kushner-Witkoff delegation in Pakistan, seen as positive in Tehran and Islamabad.

Trump warns of more military action if Iran doesn’t uphold ‘real’ ceasefire deal, after disagreement over Lebanon truce status as part of deal.

Despite some last-minute shots in Lebanon by Israel, bombs go largely silent across Gulf and Middle East.

Over 250 killed and 1,000+ wounded in Lebanon from Wednesday surprise attack by Israel’s military. UAE, Pakistan, and even EU (Kallas) condemn.

Hormuz Strait still effectively controlled by Iran: only a few vessels had passed on Wednesday. TASS reporting only 15 ‘vetted’ tankers per day to be let through.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
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15 ‘Vetted’ Vessels Per Day To Be Allowed Through Hormuz: TASS

The Associated Press has emphasized Thursday, “Iran’s approval system for ships granted safe passage – after vetting by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – remains unchanged despite US President Donald Trump’s demand for the strait to be reopened.”

“Last week was the busiest week since the start of the war with 72 passages, still 90% below normal volumes, Lloyd’s said,” the AP report continues. “Most of the vessels allowed through are connected to Iran, although some Indian vessels have gotten through with diplomatic intervention by the Indian government.” There are currently few indicators revealing Iran’s intent for what comes next, and it could be that much gets determined on whether Israel will cease its attacks on Lebanon. Tehran has threatened to renew its ballistic missile attacks of Israel’s anti-Hezbollah actions and massive airstrikes on Beirut persist.

Russia, which is an ally of Iran, has in its media published Iranian sources saying that Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels per day through Hormuz. As for Iran’s protocol for allowing passage, which reportedly could include up to a $2 million fee per vessel payable in cryptocurrency, Lloyd’s list outlines the following on where things stand:

Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy
Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait
IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation

Optimism: Bombs Largely Go Quiet

Asia One journalist Anas Mallick writes that “To my understanding, By tomorrow, first break of light, is when both delegations of US and Iran will be in Islamabad to hold talks.”

There’s some optimism regarding the US-Iran ceasefire holding, as it’s been relatively quiet in the Middle East overnight into Thursday, despite Israel getting some final shots on Lebanon in. On this, Iran’s president has made clear Tehran’s position that Israel’s renewed incursion into Lebanon and against Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, warning that these actions could make talks moot before they even begin.

Reuters observes, “Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel’s creation of ‘buffer zones’ in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war.”

Still, Gulf countries like the UAE have stated that no air threats have been detected or are inbound in the past hours, which is a rare positive development. There has been a decline in Iranian attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf region. Also, Israeli society has begun to return to normalcy, with emergency and shelter in place measures lifted across most parts of the country, and Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv having resumed operations as of midnight.

The reality of who actually controls the Hormuz Strait, told in one awkward WH press exchange:

Q: As of today, who controls the Strait of Hormuz?

LEAVITT: We expect that the strait will be opened immediately

Q: Who controls the strait right now?

LEAVITT: *refuses to answer* pic.twitter.com/eqDzxLTRAP

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 8, 2026

Over 250 Killed In Lebanon on Single Day

But the reality remains that on Wednesday – the first day of the fragile ceasefire – a mere few tankers were allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran shut down traffic again, citing the heavy Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which were the largest and deadliest of the war to date.

Sky News reports that at least 254 people were killed by the Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday, citing government health authorities. In Beirut alone, at least 91 people were killed, amid ongoing rescue efforts and treatment of the wounded in area hospitals. Over 1,000 Lebanese were wounded and injured. The Lebanese government has declared a day of mourning.

Trump To Renew Attacks if Tehran Fails in ‘Real’ Ceasefire Deal, Oil Rises

Meanwhile President Trump in a Truth Social message issued overnight says that “all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel” will remain in place around Iran until the “real agreement” on a ceasefire “is fully complied with” – warning of more US military action to come if not.

The renewed threats have pushed WTI back above $100…

Here’s president Trump’s full Truth Social statement wherein he warns that the shooting can start again “bigger, better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before”:

Iran’s leadership has meanwhile been insistent on Lebanon being part of the Iran ceasefire, and has on this basis accused Washington of already violating at least three clauses of the ten point plan. It too has serious cards to play – especially while still de facto controlling Hormuz, and with the ability to renew attacks on energy sites in Gulf states.

pic.twitter.com/itR0mAo03m

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 9, 2026

Iran on Lebanon Violations: ‘Choose War or Ceasefire, You Can’t Have Both’

Iran’s deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has told CBS News Israel’s attacks on Lebanon Wednesday were “a grave violation” of the ceasefire agreement, and emphasized the US must choose “between war and ceasefire – you cannot have it both at the same time.”

“You cannot ask for a ceasefire and then accept terms and conditions, accept areas the ceasefire is applied to, and name Lebanon, exactly Lebanon in that, and then your ally just start a massacre,” Khatibzadeh said. 

Netanyahu’s message has remained that Israel can strike Hezbollah whenever and “wherever” it chooses. “In Beirut, we eliminated Ali Youssef Kharshi, the personal secretary of Hezbollah terror organization Secretary-General Naim Qassem and one of the people closest to him. At the same time, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon: crossings used to transfer thousands of weapons, rockets, and launchers, as well as weapons depots, launchers, and Hezbollah headquarters,” Netanyahu said.

⚡️ The Israeli airstrike on Al-Basta, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Zh1YNF529S

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 8, 2026

“Our message is clear: Whoever acts against Israeli civilians will be struck. We will continue to strike Hezbollah wherever required, until we restore full security to the residents of the north.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Saar: “In the last 40 days, Hezbollah has fired approximately 6,500 missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel.”

Pakistan Welcomes Vance Heading up US Delegation

WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt made clear Wednesday that Vice President JD Vance will head up talks for the US side in Pakistan, leading Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Tehran had previously expressed its disdain for the latter two, accusing them of lying and being deceptive the first go-round before Iran suffered surprise US-Israeli attack. The pair are also accused of lacking technical know-how when it comes to talking about the nuclear issue.

Al Jazeera also freshly reports that the choice of Vance heading the US delegation is “being viewed very positively in Pakistan.” Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the UN Maleeha Lodhi says, “Politicians know the art of the possible, and therefore I think it’s a good decision by the Trump administration to have Vance lead the talks.”

Vance has stressed that Trump is “impatient to make progress” with Iran and warned that if Iranian officials don’t engage in good faith “they’re going to find out that President Trump is not one to mess around with.” The US has clamed Iran ‘begged’ for ceasefire while Tehran insists it was the other way around.

More Geopolitical Headlines

via Newsquawk…

US President Donald Trump posted: “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel….will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”.
US President Donald Trump posted: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”.
The Trump administration is considering a plan to penalize NATO members viewed as unhelpful during the Iran war by relocating US troops to more supportive countries, with potential base closures in Europe, including in Spain or Germany, according to WSJ.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told President Trump that most European nations provided support.
US officials stated they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and confirmed Trump will not offer major concessions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning Iran’s demands could trigger renewed conflict.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister stated that the speaker of parliament will lead Iran’s delegation in upcoming talks, with communication continuing through Pakistan, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan stated the delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Thursday night for “serious talks” based on Iran’s 10-point proposal.
The IRGC Navy announced alternative shipping routes to bypass potential sea mines, according to ISNA.
The IRGC stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it described as an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
Iranian lawmaker Ibrahim Azizi stated: “Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you…so wait for it”.
Saudi Arabia and Iran discussed de-escalation during a call, according to SPA.
A Pakistani Foreign Ministry source indicated the US has backed away from including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israel will continue striking Hezbollah, with the IDF targeting infrastructure in southern Lebanon overnight.
Israel’s Ministry of Energy ordered the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after a shutdown during the war, according to Channel 12.
Hezbollah stated its attacks on Israel will continue until aggression stops and launched rockets citing ceasefire violations, according to Fars News Agency.
A missile was fired from Lebanon into northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon continued despite the ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, stating their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best course of action.
Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight, according to Ukrainian media.

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