UMich Takes Flamethrower To What Little Was Left Of Its Credibility…

Confirming the preliminary data, UMich final prints showed sentiment weakening and inflation fears returning in August, with both Current Conditions and Expectations declining…

Source: Bloomberg

Buying conditions for durable goods subsided to their lowest reading in a year, and current personal finances declined 7%, both due to heightened concerns about high prices. 

“Sentiment now stands about 11% above readings from April and May but remains at least 10% below 6 and 12 months ago,” said UMich Survey Director Joanne Hsu. 

“This month’s decrease was visible across groups by age, income, and stock wealth. Moreover, perceptions of many aspects of the economy slipped.”

That said, expectations for personal finances held steady this month, albeit at relatively subdued levels relative to a year ago.

This month, few consumers spontaneously mentioned the recent events at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve (interviews closed on Monday, August 25, the day Trump announced he was firing Governor Cook).

After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations rebounded higher in August (though ended the month lower than preliminary data) with year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.5% last month to 4.8% final this month (4.9% prelim) and long-run inflation expectations also lifted from 3.4% in July to 3.5% final (down from 3.9% prelim)…

Source: Bloomberg

We have no idea what the fuck is going on with this elevated inflation expectation all three political cohorts saw one-year inflation expectations decline…

Source: Bloomberg

UMich continues to take a flamethrower to what little was left of its credibility.