Unadjusted Jobless Claims Prints At 10-Month Low, But…

The number of Americans that filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week was flat at 218k (on a seasonally adjusted basis ) but tumbled to 193k (the lowest in 10 months) on an NSA basis…

Source: Bloomberg

Kentucky and Texas saw the biggest drops in initial claims last week…

Continuing claims remains above the Maginot Line of 1.9 million Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

However, worse could be to come as plans to reduce staff spiked in July to a level that was well above the average for the month since the pandemic, with technology firms leading sectors trimming their workforce, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“We are seeing the Federal budget cuts implemented by DOGE impact non-profits and healthcare in addition to the government. AI was cited for over 10,000 cuts last month, and tariff concerns have impacted nearly 6,000 jobs this year,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

US-based companies announced 62,075 job cuts this month, compared with almost 25,900 a year earlier. The 2025 number is the second-highest for a July in the past decade, only trailing 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 crisis.

In July, Government entities announced 3,666 job cuts, slightly down from the 3,801 cuts announced in June. So far in 2025, this sector has announced 292,294 job cuts, the highest in any sector, primarily due to reductions at the Federal level. Some of these cuts remain in legal limbo, though courts have allowed many to go through.

Technology is the leading private sector in job cuts, with 89,251 in 2025, a 36% increase from the 65,863 cuts tracked through July 2024. The industry is being reshaped by the advancement of artificial intelligence and ongoing uncertainty surrounding work visas, which have contributed to workforce reductions.

“DOGE Impact” remains the leading reason for job cut announcements in 2025, cited in 289,679 planned layoffs so far this year. This includes direct reductions to the Federal workforce and its contractors. An additional 13,056 cuts have been attributed to DOGE Downstream Impact, such as the loss of funding to private non-profits and affiliated organizations.

This is very evident in the continuing jobless claims data from the ‘Deep TriState’ which is at it highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Technology hiring continues to decline, with companies in the sector announcing just 5,510 new jobs in 2025, down 58% from 13,263 in the same period last year.

Is the AI productivity boom starting to accelerate (at the cost of actual human employment?)