WTI Extends Gains, Shrugs Off SPR Release Amid Crude Build, Dip In US Production

Oil prices are higher this morning, shrugging off the well-telegraphed (and practically useless) SPR release.

“Oil prices remain volatile and risk sentiment fragile and trading is on the headlines and rapidly evolving conflict in the Middle East,” noted Neil Wilson, Saxo UK investor strategist.

And while, the main drivers of crude prices remain more global, the domestic supply and demand situation remains noteworthy based on its impact on gasoline (pump) prices.

API

Crude -1.7mm (+1.1mm exp)

Cushing

Gasoline -1.8mm

Distillates -2.3mm

DOE

Crude +3.82mm (+1.1mm exp)

Cushing +117k

Gasoline -3.65mm – biggest draw since Oct 2025

Distillates -1.35mm

Crude stocks rose more than expected last week (third week in a row) while gasoline stocks saw sizable draws (for the fourth week in a row)…

Source: Bloomberg

For the third week in a row, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which is now once again making headlines) saw no change…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production dipped modestly last week as the rig count stabilized…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices extended gains…

“Markets are likely to grow increasingly fearful over the long-term implications with each day that passes,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

“Oil prices remain the main driver of market sentiment,” he added.

Finally, the International Energy Agency is proposing a release of 400 million barrels with Birol stating that “each member will release oil at a time frame appropriate for each member state” – a slippery way of saying the release won’t come nearly as fast as it is required.

Of course, what really matters (for Trump and the Republicans) is the price of gas, which at this rate is set to soar above $4/gallon imminently…

…and it may already be too late to avoid it.